BECKETT IS GOOD - BUT HE'S NO PEDRO

There are some parallels between the Red Sox’ off-season acquisition of former Marlin Josh Beckett and the club’s 1997 off-season acquisition of Pedro Martinez.

Both players were right-handed starting pitchers.  Both came from National League clubs, and therefore were something of a mystery to American League players and fans.  Both were young.  Beckett will be twenty-six on All-Star Day, the same age Pedro was in his first campaign with the Sox. Both arrived with some injury concerns.  Perhaps most importantly, both pitchers were acquired based in large part on the assumption that they would get a whole lot better in the future.  (It is common knowledge that players peak in their late twenties.)

Pedro made good on his promise, posting Hall of Fame numbers in four of his first five seasons with the Sox.  The question facing Red Sox fans is whether they can expect a similar kind of performance from Beckett.

Pedro arrived in Beantown with impressive numbers - a career record of 65-39 (.625) and an ERA of 3.02 in 120 starts, most of which had been with marginal teams. Beckett comes to town with a career record of 41-34 and an ERA of 3.46 in 103 starts (.546).  Beckett’s numbers are good, but not Pedro-like.

Looking a little deeper, it appears in hindsight that Pedro was poised to really turn in up in 1998-2001.  His last season with the Expos was spectacular.  His ERA was 1.90, and he rang up 305 strikeouts and just 67 walks in what is still a career-high 241 innings.  In other words, Martinez came aboard on the heels of a season for the ages.

Beckett has done well, but his achievements have been more modest, even recently.  Last year, he posted an ERA of 3.37, 11^th in the league.  Not bad, but not otherworldly either.  More concerning is the fact that he worked only 178 innings.  Among the league’s top twenty pitchers measured by ERA, Beckett ranked 19^th, and 39^th in the league as a whole. Even old, “sore-armed” Pedro made it to 15^th in the league with 217 innings pitched, and the Greatest Right-Handed Pitcher in the History of Major League Baseball himself - Roger Clemens - was 20^th with 211.

Beckett’s innings total reflects two stints on the disabled list – one for a blister on his pitching hand and another for a left oblique strain.  He finished strong, so it appears he got over these problems, but one has right to be concerned about the guy’s durability.  Note – despite posting just 178 innings last year, that total was his career high.

Don’t get me wrong, Beckett is good.  Darned good.  As a Sox fan, I’m glad to have him.  His price - $4.25 million – is positively bargain basement.  I’m just saying that Red Sox fans would be wise not to expect him to carry too big a load in 2006.  And as for his upside, it would be great if he could get up to 210 innings, and maintain his ERA around 3.30 in the American League.  Expecting more than that, this year, is wishful thinking.